Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | INST -4000 VAL +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +40 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | INST -22.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -18.7 (+21.3) | 153.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -16.9 (+23.1) | 151.3 (+10.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -18.2 (+21.8) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -18.7 (+21.3) | 153.7 (+8.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 3-17 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-11 |
| Away | 9-4 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#28) | -5.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#11) | -1.34 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#18) | -1.17 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#22) | 0.442 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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