Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -355 HC +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -9.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -8.3 (+7.7) | 134.0 (+0.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -6.9 (+9.1) | 131.9 (+2.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -7.3 (+8.7) | 132.6 (+1.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -7.4 (+8.6) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#299) | -14.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#298) | -2.58 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#303) | -3.43 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#270) | 0.384 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.