I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–13 on winners spread MAE 10.6 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington @ Oregon State -6.5 155.4 28% 67–55 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +13.9 140.1 90% 62–66 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh +4.7 134.3 67% 90–94 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +10.7 126.5 83% 66–69 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +10.8 135.4 84% 68–63 ✗
Marist @ Rider +1.4 132.5 55% 77–62 ✗
The Citadel @ Wofford +4.5 144.5 66% 64–77 ✓
Oakland @ Wright State +2.2 172.1 58% 74–60 ✗
Maine @ New Hampshire +5.3 139.2 68% 57–60 ✓
Nicholls @ Lamar +5.0 158.2 67% 56–75 ✓
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.7 135.2 73% 52–63 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +15.2 146.4 92% 68–77 ✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +15.1 147.1 91% 79–87 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +21.2 152.7 97% 59–79 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -3.9 139.7 36% 69–85 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +13.3 155.9 89% 80–77 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +15.2 146.0 92% 85–77 ✗
Virginia @ Florida State -0.6 124.8 48% 80–76 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University -4.5 149.3 34% 58–75 ✗
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -14.7 137.1 9% 77–69 ✓
Southern Utah @ Grand Canyon +15.9 153.7 93% 65–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +0.0 136.1 50% 62–65 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside -10.0 134.5 18% 78–88 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +2.5 138.6 59% 65–68 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri -5.4 139.9 31% 75–51 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -19.5 137.7 4% 76–51 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -2.7 135.4 40% 67–84 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +6.8 144.6 73% 72–63 ✗
New Mexico State @ UTEP +6.0 136.0 71% 49–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +16.2 131.6 93% 53–58 ✓
Arizona @ Colorado -5.3 164.6 32% 99–79 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +15.4 147.0 92% 66–72 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +3.9 148.3 64% 61–80 ✓
USC @ Stanford +3.1 156.3 61% 68–99 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +8.9 147.2 79% 70–71 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific -9.7 147.0 19% 89–84 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +7.4 153.6 75% 82–74 ✗
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +1.6 137.0 56% 70–87 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State -8.9 151.0 21% 95–82 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +6.1 136.5 71% 54–80 ✓
Penn State @ Northwestern +6.6 151.1 73% 63–68 ✓
UAB @ Tulsa +0.2 156.0 51% 70–63 ✗
Charlotte @ Temple -5.8 135.4 30% 73–70 ✓
North Texas @ SMU +6.6 125.1 72% 68–71 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +7.3 173.5 75% 78–90 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +11.7 156.4 86% 79–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Louisiana +9.0 148.7 79% 60–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Iowa +5.9 156.5 70% 85–90 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -0.5 136.5 48% 65–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.