What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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94–30 on winners spread MAE 9.4 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Canisius -6.0 149.0 28% 77–72 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +14.2 139.3 88% 56–80 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -2.8 145.5 40% 73–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +10.7 154.6 84% 62–90 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +6.5 135.5 76% 64–69 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart +0.5 139.4 55% 54–67 ✓
Rider @ Merrimack +8.2 131.5 74% 83–78 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield -1.3 135.7 48% 62–69 ✗
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +0.6 141.2 43% 61–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -14.4 149.6 13% 94–67 ✓
UCLA @ Purdue +5.0 137.6 76% 66–76 ✓
James Madison @ Texas State -0.5 145.0 42% 93–102 ✗
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +2.8 154.1 68% 75–76 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -8.8 139.1 21% 70–58 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama +10.2 137.3 85% 42–65 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +6.6 146.5 76% 57–68 ✓
App State @ Marshall +0.8 135.8 62% 57–75 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +3.1 151.2 68% 72–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV +0.7 132.5 53% 55–68 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia -5.9 129.0 22% 71–58 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State -3.7 150.7 30% 68–64 ✓
Miami @ North Carolina +14.3 159.8 88% 73–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +2.3 141.8 63% 95–101 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham -6.4 148.9 27% 90–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +3.0 136.7 67% 67–59 ✗
UConn @ Providence -4.2 147.3 26% 75–63 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +6.4 140.3 77% 70–80 ✓
Auburn @ Kentucky -2.2 166.0 28% 94–78 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +2.8 142.5 63% 89–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Boston University +2.3 132.2 63% 64–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +7.4 149.1 83% 71–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +4.8 146.8 69% 53–79 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -1.9 140.7 28% 79–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +0.1 145.8 56% 79–88 ✓
Arkansas @ South Carolina -2.0 142.7 47% 53–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -7.0 152.3 26% 91–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel -12.6 132.9 14% 81–66 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +2.2 155.5 64% 66–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +1.9 144.8 56% 78–73 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -7.6 153.5 26% 83–66 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +2.8 142.2 66% 57–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +8.7 139.0 83% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ Tulsa -3.1 142.4 38% 79–77 ✓
George Mason @ Duquesne -1.2 130.6 48% 68–85 ✗
Richmond @ Dayton +12.4 139.8 87% 64–74 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +21.4 142.8 91% 71–92 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -2.9 146.4 35% 94–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +8.1 135.3 75% 67–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine +0.2 146.0 44% 80–72 ✗
UAlbany @ NJIT -5.2 143.8 25% 86–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +11.2 132.1 82% 49–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +6.0 136.8 71% 61–71 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +1.6 148.0 54% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Ole Miss +6.4 151.8 77% 84–87 ✓
Furman @ Wofford +2.1 143.4 57% 78–75 ✗
Ball State @ Bowling Green +1.1 145.9 58% 52–61 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -4.3 134.9 34% 84–79 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +8.5 150.7 85% 57–80 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +15.5 135.3 90% 61–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State +1.3 149.4 56% 88–91 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -3.3 152.2 53% 84–91 ✗
NC State @ Georgia Tech +2.9 143.1 68% 62–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +5.2 140.8 67% 70–59 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -9.5 144.6 21% 62–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M -2.9 132.8 38% 75–68 ✓
LSU @ Mississippi State +9.8 152.2 83% 69–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +8.9 147.9 84% 52–94 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +4.8 155.0 72% 76–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +3.6 159.7 73% 90–103 ✓
UCF @ TCU +4.6 150.6 74% 78–89 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +1.5 142.9 55% 67–98 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -2.4 146.9 34% 75–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +1.5 146.0 63% 66–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State +3.3 145.1 63% 52–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +4.5 135.7 72% 68–81 ✓
Yale @ Harvard -11.6 144.2 17% 69–74 ✗
USC @ Oregon +7.9 150.5 81% 61–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.8 135.5 63% 74–55 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +2.3 146.5 64% 58–78 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -6.5 134.0 26% 87–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +13.1 145.3 88% 67–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +1.8 146.5 64% 57–68 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +7.7 133.4 77% 72–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +11.1 142.5 86% 59–100 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.4 145.6 53% 100–108 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +4.2 150.3 72% 76–74 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP +1.4 144.8 51% 76–75 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +13.4 129.5 87% 64–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.7 142.7 88% 79–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +9.1 140.4 81% 55–71 ✓
Le Moyne @ Stonehill +5.3 147.2 71% 79–85 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +1.6 147.6 54% 61–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +4.0 132.7 72% 56–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +7.3 153.1 81% 69–81 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -6.1 154.0 32% 74–87 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +8.4 148.4 81% 69–74 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +4.0 136.2 70% 59–47 ✗
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +2.6 135.9 62% 65–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -4.0 131.7 33% 58–73 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +1.7 149.1 64% 68–72 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -2.6 147.1 48% 68–73 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho +2.7 140.6 61% 79–81 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +1.6 140.3 60% 76–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington -1.3 140.3 47% 78–54 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +1.5 156.8 60% 72–98 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +3.9 167.4 65% 79–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -5.3 147.5 27% 74–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +6.7 141.3 79% 71–74 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -1.7 140.7 35% 69–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.9 140.0 68% 54–68 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +0.4 138.2 53% 90–66 ✗
New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley +10.2 154.9 84% 78–88 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -1.7 158.0 55% 93–97 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville +7.0 147.9 80% 68–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin +0.3 139.5 55% 94–70 ✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +1.4 151.7 60% 88–91 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +8.4 142.3 80% 60–71 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M +2.5 133.0 63% 68–73 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +3.2 151.3 57% 92–87 ✗
Indiana @ Washington -2.4 147.2 35% 78–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -7.3 121.4 18% 55–48 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston +7.0 144.0 80% 65–87 ✓
Elon @ Stony Brook -6.4 137.3 36% 66–71 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +1.1 139.3 58% 47–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.