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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–33 on winners spread MAE 8.4 117 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Niagara @ Manhattan	+2.4	143.2	60%	81–67	✗
Iona @ Saint Peter's	+1.6	127.9	60%	57–69	✓
Fairfield @ Siena	-12.1	134.7	14%	93–69	✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's	+0.6	147.6	49%	69–74	✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo	+8.6	152.4	82%	64–68	✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac	+7.3	147.9	79%	84–88	✓
Illinois @ Purdue	+10.0	154.3	81%	78–83	✓
Bowling Green @ Akron	+10.1	139.9	83%	67–83	✓
Boise State @ San José State	-3.4	141.0	35%	78–69	✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall	-4.6	140.6	32%	75–78	✗
North Carolina @ Clemson	+3.6	157.4	66%	65–55	✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central	+1.9	146.7	60%	54–73	✓
Pittsburgh @ Louisville	-11.2	139.9	16%	83–70	✓
Rutgers @ Iowa	+6.7	143.4	75%	77–86	✓
DePaul @ Georgetown	+7.1	138.1	78%	65–68	✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina	+3.6	135.9	65%	62–68	✓
La Salle @ Fordham	+4.0	147.1	68%	81–76	✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire	+1.7	146.7	59%	82–75	✗
Kentucky @ Florida	+1.8	166.9	56%	87–85	✗
Holy Cross @ Army	+6.0	129.5	72%	57–70	✓
St. John's @ Villanova	+5.0	138.1	69%	81–71	✗
Colgate @ Navy	-2.3	127.5	36%	80–72	✓
Lafayette @ Boston University	+7.8	126.3	77%	59–51	✗
Georgia @ Missouri	+2.2	143.7	60%	75–68	✗
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+4.6	127.6	66%	56–71	✓
Mercer @ VMI	-2.8	137.7	36%	86–64	✓
Samford @ The Citadel	-1.3	150.5	44%	80–64	✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+11.0	160.4	84%	106–98	✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy	-6.8	145.0	23%	84–61	✓
Bryant @ UMBC	-6.2	161.3	26%	81–67	✓
TCU @ Kansas	+6.2	148.1	75%	81–83	✓
West Virginia @ Houston	+20.7	130.7	91%	55–89	✓
Providence @ Creighton	+8.4	138.1	79%	60–69	✓
Auburn @ Arkansas	-3.8	151.6	36%	83–51	✓
Virginia @ NC State	+3.2	130.8	63%	60–76	✓
Tulane @ North Texas	+5.1	144.7	70%	56–70	✓
Murray State @ Evansville	+7.7	147.5	81%	81–59	✗
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian	-2.2	145.6	41%	84–80	✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point	+9.3	149.6	84%	76–85	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson	+1.1	138.0	55%	64–67	✓
Drexel @ William & Mary	-8.1	141.2	24%	77–55	✓
Delaware @ Hofstra	+2.7	143.5	65%	71–76	✓
Campbell @ Hampton	+0.7	135.6	48%	80–69	✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson	+8.9	150.0	83%	55–71	✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason	+12.3	144.5	88%	67–79	✓
American University @ Bucknell	+2.0	134.5	57%	71–63	✗
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+1.5	150.8	57%	74–63	✗
Long Island University @ Stonehill	+1.7	139.4	58%	73–68	✗
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania	+9.5	134.0	86%	51–80	✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo	-0.7	141.5	43%	82–77	✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State	+9.5	139.4	83%	71–65	✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio	+4.1	151.1	68%	66–78	✓
Harvard @ Princeton	+13.0	143.9	88%	58–89	✓
Maine @ Vermont	+6.7	134.4	76%	58–65	✓
UAlbany @ NJIT	-3.9	147.6	34%	79–73	✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M	-12.3	138.0	15%	73–67	✓
Nebraska @ Wisconsin	+8.5	143.4	79%	72–88	✓
Miami @ Wake Forest	+2.7	153.4	64%	82–86	✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State	-5.7	147.4	26%	75–70	✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss	-11.4	154.6	15%	71–81	✗
UTSA @ Rice	+5.8	147.6	73%	89–82	✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood	+14.5	135.4	89%	56–77	✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack	+6.9	131.9	76%	58–82	✓
Green Bay @ Oakland	+5.8	139.8	76%	73–79	✓
North Dakota @ Northern Arizona	+3.7	142.1	66%	73–74	✓
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe	+4.0	136.5	66%	76–68	✗
Old Dominion @ Arkansas State	+6.8	149.7	78%	75–90	✓
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin	+6.4	143.5	77%	73–92	✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt	-13.5	155.1	15%	78–75	✓
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	-5.6	146.6	29%	69–71	✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State	+8.6	153.6	81%	80–88	✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State	+11.5	144.5	87%	68–78	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte	-6.5	138.3	29%	68–70	✗
Stanford @ USC	+3.4	150.2	67%	79–93	✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech	+1.5	146.3	58%	95–87	✗
Virginia Tech @ Florida State	+0.3	139.3	54%	74–77	✓
Missouri State @ Bradley	+3.1	137.0	65%	60–86	✓
UNLV @ San Diego State	+12.5	143.0	87%	61–72	✓
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago	+1.7	139.6	57%	67–72	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond	+1.4	136.0	54%	54–65	✓
George Washington @ VCU	+7.0	150.7	77%	84–82	✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State	-6.5	144.8	24%	79–72	✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State	+9.9	130.4	87%	53–55	✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro	+2.9	138.6	66%	54–70	✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina	+6.0	150.8	76%	66–70	✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama	+3.7	145.3	68%	90–76	✗
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine	-5.1	142.7	29%	81–70	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley	+4.8	144.2	71%	62–80	✓
UC Davis @ UC Irvine	+12.4	139.5	87%	71–74	✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate	-5.4	138.0	30%	82–80	✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+4.1	142.0	66%	74–75	✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois	+9.0	132.6	83%	57–68	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock	+4.2	144.3	66%	90–88	✗
App State @ Troy	-3.4	147.5	35%	62–66	✗
Nicholls @ Houston Christian	-8.3	141.5	22%	98–94	✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+2.2	138.4	63%	86–98	✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	-2.7	136.6	36%	88–76	✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington	+12.7	148.7	86%	83–91	✓
Marshall @ Texas State	+0.9	132.5	54%	79–75	✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State	+6.6	163.4	77%	77–80	✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State	+8.1	134.7	81%	63–70	✓
Montana State @ South Dakota State	+6.4	143.2	73%	61–89	✓
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans	+1.6	137.4	55%	73–68	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	-3.4	133.6	37%	63–69	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston	-7.4	139.5	25%	77–81	✗
Ole Miss @ Tennessee	+13.2	140.2	84%	64–90	✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma	+0.8	144.9	53%	63–71	✓
Duke @ Notre Dame	-12.0	134.0	16%	67–59	✓
Oregon State @ Washington	+11.2	147.8	86%	72–79	✓
UCF @ Kansas State	+1.4	138.4	57%	52–77	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word	+0.7	144.6	54%	75–65	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Abilene Christian	+9.1	150.0	82%	89–91	✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U	+8.4	133.8	79%	46–48	✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky	-0.5	140.2	50%	68–70	✗
Texas Southern @ Southern	+6.5	142.2	76%	51–58	✓
Charleston @ Stony Brook	-1.5	146.1	42%	93–87	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+3.1	159.3	62%	63–62	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.