Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -400 ODU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +15 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.4 (+9.6) | 151.4 (+13.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -6.8 (+8.2) | 149.7 (+15.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.3 (+8.7) | 151.5 (+13.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.2 (+8.8) | 153.3 (+11.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | ODU 75 – 71 ARST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ARST 78 – 59 ODU |
| Dec 30, 2022 | ARST 60 – 57 ODU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-11 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | -5.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#265) | -0.94 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#256) | -1.15 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#276) | 0.465 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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