But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 8.0 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State -5.0 133.6 30% 71–64 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -10.6 136.8 16% 72–57 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Elon +5.7 155.6 72% 59–77 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +1.6 158.5 59% 58–73 ✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar +14.5 153.0 88% 70–90 ✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.2 137.0 71% 78–58 ✗
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky -2.2 139.2 41% 59–69 ✗
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +7.7 150.0 81% 75–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -11.7 129.6 15% 54–51 ✓
Utah @ Arizona +12.8 160.9 85% 73–92 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas +4.1 139.3 65% 78–67 ✗
Colorado @ Arizona State -2.1 143.8 42% 73–76 ✗
Valparaiso @ UIC +10.4 134.3 85% 64–70 ✓
Ohio State @ Indiana -3.1 146.6 39% 65–71 ✗
Pacific @ Portland +9.6 143.8 85% 64–78 ✓
Omaha @ Idaho State +0.9 138.8 52% 62–63 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana +10.0 144.3 86% 77–85 ✓
Portland State @ Kansas City -1.0 138.0 40% 67–83 ✗
Denver @ Northern Colorado +1.0 165.9 55% 82–86 ✓
Weber State @ Oral Roberts -3.2 144.3 35% 83–78 ✓
Sacramento State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +15.4 131.1 87% 50–63 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge +4.9 140.0 73% 66–76 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama +9.9 149.3 86% 84–81 ✗
LSU @ Texas A&M +11.5 145.4 85% 68–53 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +3.8 136.2 62% 73–59 ✗
Colorado State @ Utah State +2.8 147.6 64% 72–77 ✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga +15.2 147.9 88% 74–101 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -7.1 130.8 22% 68–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Montana +12.7 152.0 88% 63–82 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -10.9 148.7 15% 75–65 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -0.8 133.5 48% 76–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ BYU +12.5 151.0 87% 71–60 ✗
Oregon @ Washington State +3.3 137.9 65% 89–84 ✗
California @ UCLA +5.1 136.2 71% 66–57 ✗
Wyoming @ New Mexico +14.9 150.9 89% 60–77 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pepperdine -3.0 140.2 35% 78–72 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -1.8 141.9 43% 61–52 ✓
Michigan @ Penn State -2.1 155.2 39% 73–79 ✗
Wichita State @ Temple +1.1 143.4 55% 61–68 ✓
Massachusetts @ Dayton +8.7 149.1 80% 60–64 ✓
Niagara @ Iona +8.6 142.1 82% 75–73 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +16.1 144.8 91% 65–75 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +10.0 144.6 85% 59–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +4.8 131.1 74% 64–70 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +2.7 131.7 64% 61–82 ✓
Canisius @ Rider -5.3 146.2 29% 76–79 ✗
South Florida @ UAB +0.9 148.2 57% 71–75 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina +1.0 137.6 55% 57–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa -2.9 156.5 38% 77–66 ✓
Drake @ Belmont -2.2 150.6 40% 65–87 ✗
Chicago State @ UTEP +5.3 130.1 67% 69–74 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +6.0 145.4 76% 85–88 ✓
SMU @ Memphis +3.4 143.1 67% 59–62 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota +5.7 134.7 73% 62–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.