Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
63 – 50
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Sacramento State Hornets
Schoenecker Arena · January 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread STMN -9.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Under
Money STMN -400 / SAC +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total STMN win
Actual STMN +13 113 Won
Massey STMN -16.6 (-3.6) — —
Massey Totals — 128.3 (-15.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ STMN -11.4 (+1.6) 126.8 (-13.8) 85% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML STMN -15.4 (-2.4) 131.1 (-18.1) 87% ✓
Baseline ML STMN -14.4 (-1.4) 132.1 (-19.1) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML STMN -15.3 (-2.3) 128.1 (-15.1) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STMN SAC
Overall 20-13 10-24
Conference 9-7 4-14
Home 12-2 6-8
Away 6-9 2-13
Neutral 2-2 2-3
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 64.2
Avg Pts Against 65.6 71.3
Massey 3.3 (#121) -9.2 (#315)
Bradley-Terry 0.23 (#158) -1.86 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.43 (#143) -2.15 (#308)
RPI 0.492 (#191) 0.400 (#326)
Shooting & Four Factors STMN SAC
FG% 44.4% 40.7%
3PT% 36.3% 30.9%
REB / G 31.4 35.0
OREB / G 8.5 10.7
AST / TO 1.29 0.70
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 48.1%
TOV% 16.7% 24.9%
ORB% 26.9% 31.4%
FT Rate 19.2% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 15.2%
DRB% 70.4% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 25.2%

Game Analysis

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