Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -400 SAC +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -16.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -11.4 (+1.6) | 126.8 (-13.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -15.4 (-2.4) | 131.1 (-18.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -14.4 (-1.4) | 132.1 (-19.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -15.3 (-2.3) | 128.1 (-15.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#121) | -9.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#158) | -1.86 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#143) | -2.15 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.400 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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