Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +275 NEV -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -11.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -10.4 (-4.6) | 139.1 (-10.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -10.6 (-4.4) | 136.8 (-7.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -10.2 (-4.8) | 137.9 (-8.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -10.3 (-4.7) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#239) | 12.1 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#209) | 2.99 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#207) | 3.54 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#213) | 0.630 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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