Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -800 SDAK +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -15.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -11.6 (+7.4) | 150.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -12.7 (+6.3) | 152.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -13.2 (+5.8) | 152.4 (-7.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -12.5 (+6.5) | 152.3 (-7.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | -8.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#116) | -1.27 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#114) | -1.75 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#61) | 0.415 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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