Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | FAIR -130 MRST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -3.2 (+17.8) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.7 (+18.3) | 131.7 (+11.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.6 (+19.4) | 132.2 (+10.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.4 (+18.6) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#196) | -0.0 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#199) | -0.25 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#217) | -0.51 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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