Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -125 OMA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -1.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.3 (-0.3) | 137.2 (-12.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (+0.1) | 138.8 (-13.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -0.0 (+1.0) | 140.8 (-15.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.3 (+0.7) | 139.8 (-14.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#283) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#335) | -1.02 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#317) | -1.12 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#350) | 0.439 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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