Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Idaho State Bengals
63 – 62
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Omaha Mavericks
Reed Gym · January 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread IDST -2.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money IDST -125 / OMA +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total IDST win
Actual IDST +1 125 Won
Massey IDST -1.3 (-0.3) — —
Massey Totals — 137.8 (-12.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 41% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 41% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ IDST -1.3 (-0.3) 137.2 (-12.2) 53% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML IDST -0.9 (+0.1) 138.8 (-13.8) 52% ✓
Baseline ML OMA -0.0 (+1.0) 140.8 (-15.8) 53% ✓
Baseline Plus ML IDST -0.3 (+0.7) 139.8 (-14.8) 51% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IDST OMA
Overall 14-20 15-18
Conference 7-11 7-9
Home 8-5 11-3
Away 4-13 2-13
Neutral 2-2 2-2
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.4 72.3
Avg Pts Against 71.8 74.7
Massey -6.7 (#283) -3.8 (#238)
Bradley-Terry -2.19 (#335) -1.02 (#266)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.38 (#317) -1.12 (#257)
RPI 0.373 (#350) 0.439 (#280)
Shooting & Four Factors IDST OMA
FG% 45.7% 42.1%
3PT% 29.9% 29.2%
REB / G 30.2 32.5
OREB / G 9.5 9.2
AST / TO 0.81 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 47.0%
TOV% 20.8% 16.3%
ORB% 30.0% 26.5%
FT Rate 20.3% 33.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.2% 50.7%
Opp TOV% 17.2% 17.3%
DRB% 69.2% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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