Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -800 VAL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -16.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -9.8 (-3.8) | 135.9 (-1.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -10.4 (-4.4) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -10.5 (-4.5) | 134.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -10.3 (-4.3) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 3-17 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -9.6 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#218) | -1.73 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#161) | -1.92 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.420 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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