Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | KC +130 PRST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -1.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -1.8 (+17.8) | 136.7 (+13.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -1.0 (+17.0) | 138.0 (+12.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -0.7 (+16.7) | 139.4 (+10.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -0.9 (+16.9) | 138.4 (+11.6) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#307) | 0.91 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#296) | 0.81 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#287) | 0.549 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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