Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | USU -160 CSU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | USU -2.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.1 (+0.9) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.8 (+2.2) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.7 (+2.3) | 148.0 (+1.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.3 (+2.7) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#30) | 14.8 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#18) | 2.92 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#27) | 4.05 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#7) | 0.659 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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