Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | WAG -180 SFPA +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -8.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -5.7 (+9.3) | 129.6 (-2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -4.6 (+10.4) | 127.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -5.3 (+9.7) | 127.5 (-0.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -4.8 (+10.2) | 128.1 (-1.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#296) | -11.5 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#258) | -2.35 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#280) | -3.57 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#272) | 0.375 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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