Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -205 LAS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -6.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -3.8 (-8.8) | 149.9 (+7.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -5.5 (-10.5) | 148.9 (+8.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -4.0 (-9.0) | 147.1 (+9.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -4.1 (-9.1) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FOR 66 – 64 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#176) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#213) | -0.04 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#213) | -0.41 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#216) | 0.472 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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