Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | FOR -260 LAS +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -4.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -3.9 (+4.1) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -4.0 (+4.0) | 141.1 (-11.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -4.5 (+3.5) | 141.4 (-11.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -4.5 (+3.5) | 142.1 (-12.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FOR 66 – 64 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | -2.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#84) | -0.32 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#98) | -0.50 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#76) | 0.490 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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