Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -218 LAS +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -4.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -2.9 (+3.1) | 130.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -2.3 (+3.7) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -1.8 (+4.2) | 131.4 (-9.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -2.4 (+3.6) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FOR 66 – 64 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | -3.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#283) | -0.40 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#251) | -0.44 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#258) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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