Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic Sun Conference · Insight Credit Union Arena at Edmunds Center · January 6, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread STET -7.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money STET -275 / JAX +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total STET win
Actual STET +16 126 Won
Massey STET -11.3 (+4.7) — —
Massey Totals — 154.2 (-28.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 81% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ STET -6.9 (+9.1) 146.4 (-20.4) 78% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML STET -8.9 (+7.1) 150.0 (-24.0) 83% ✓
Baseline ML STET -8.8 (+7.2) 151.0 (-25.0) 83% ✓
Baseline Plus ML STET -9.3 (+6.7) 148.2 (-22.2) 83% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 JAX 89 – 85 STET
Feb 12, 2026 STET 67 – 62 JAX
Feb 27, 2025 JAX 79 – 72 STET
Feb 7, 2025 JAX 74 – 65 STET
Mar 8, 2024 STET 88 – 87 JAX

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STET JAX
Overall 22-13 16-17
Conference 11-5 5-11
Home 14-2 11-3
Away 6-10 4-14
Neutral 2-1 1-0
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.8 69.6
Avg Pts Against 75.6 74.6
Massey -1.8 (#197) -8.8 (#313)
Bradley-Terry 0.13 (#167) -0.66 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.35 (#200) -0.86 (#238)
RPI 0.529 (#128) 0.469 (#229)
Shooting & Four Factors STET JAX
FG% 44.2% 43.8%
3PT% 36.0% 32.6%
REB / G 31.5 33.3
OREB / G 8.8 10.0
AST / TO 1.14 0.69
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 49.4%
TOV% 18.1% 21.1%
ORB% 27.4% 29.9%
FT Rate 22.6% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 13.3% 17.8%
DRB% 64.7% 64.1%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 30.3%

Game Analysis

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