Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | STET -275 JAX +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | STET -11.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -6.9 (+9.1) | 146.4 (-20.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -8.9 (+7.1) | 150.0 (-24.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -8.8 (+7.2) | 151.0 (-25.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -9.3 (+6.7) | 148.2 (-22.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#197) | -8.8 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#167) | -0.66 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | -0.86 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#128) | 0.469 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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