Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -300 GWEB +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -10.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -7.3 (+1.7) | 148.7 (+12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.3 (-0.3) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -9.5 (-0.5) | 150.3 (+10.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.5 (-1.5) | 152.6 (+8.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#110) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#94) | -0.76 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#81) | -1.38 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#104) | 0.456 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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