Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | SPU +130 IONA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -0.8 (+11.2) | 127.5 (-1.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.3 (+11.7) | 124.7 (+1.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.6 (+10.4) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.3 (+10.7) | 127.1 (-1.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IONA 72 – 64 SPU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SPU 77 – 63 IONA |
| Dec 8, 2024 | IONA 72 – 63 SPU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SPU 59 – 53 IONA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | IONA 73 – 53 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#180) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#154) | -0.10 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#154) | 0.20 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#174) | 0.496 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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