Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -115 SPU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -4.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.5 (+12.5) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -2.8 (+11.8) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -3.6 (+12.6) | 133.4 (+1.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.9 (+12.9) | 132.5 (+2.5) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IONA 72 – 64 SPU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SPU 77 – 63 IONA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SPU 59 – 53 IONA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SPU 69 – 57 IONA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | IONA 73 – 53 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#335) | -2.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#320) | -0.64 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#324) | -0.83 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#313) | 0.449 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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