Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | NCSU -135 UVA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -2.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.8 (+13.2) | 130.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -3.2 (+12.8) | 130.8 (+5.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.1 (+13.9) | 130.7 (+5.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.6 (+13.4) | 131.6 (+4.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#77) | 8.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#37) | 1.90 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#36) | 2.14 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#77) | 0.583 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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