We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
74 – 73
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · January 6, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NAU -2.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money NAU -125 / UND +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual NAU +1 147 Won
Massey NAU -5.2 (-4.2) — —
Massey Totals — 140.4 (+6.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 84% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 82% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NAU -4.0 (-3.0) 140.8 (+6.2) 59% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NAU -3.7 (-2.7) 142.1 (+4.9) 66% ✓
Baseline ML NAU -3.8 (-2.8) 143.3 (+3.7) 66% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NAU -3.8 (-2.8) 143.8 (+3.2) 63% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU UND
Overall 14-19 18-14
Conference 7-11 10-6
Home 7-5 9-5
Away 6-12 7-8
Neutral 1-2 2-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 68.6 73.8
Avg Pts Against 76.6 74.0
Massey -7.9 (#299) -8.7 (#311)
Bradley-Terry -0.02 (#181) -0.83 (#255)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.74 (#231) -1.30 (#270)
RPI 0.501 (#168) 0.438 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU UND
FG% 43.5% 40.8%
3PT% 32.0% 29.0%
REB / G 29.4 34.7
OREB / G 7.3 11.1
AST / TO 1.01 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 47.3%
TOV% 19.3% 17.0%
ORB% 21.1% 28.8%
FT Rate 17.4% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 53.1%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 16.0%
DRB% 69.4% 71.1%
Opp FT Rate 30.6% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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