Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -125 UND +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -5.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -4.0 (-3.0) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.7 (-2.7) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -3.8 (-2.8) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -3.8 (-2.8) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#299) | -8.7 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#181) | -0.83 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#231) | -1.30 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#168) | 0.438 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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