Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | NCCU -155 HOW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -2.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -1.6 (+17.4) | 145.6 (-18.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.9 (+17.1) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -1.0 (+18.0) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -2.3 (+16.7) | 147.5 (-20.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#256) | -3.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#238) | -1.03 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | -0.98 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#205) | 0.436 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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