Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | UNT -160 TULN +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +14 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -6.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -5.1 (+8.9) | 144.7 (-18.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.7 (+5.3) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -5.8 (+8.2) | 143.5 (-17.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -4.9 (+9.1) | 143.5 (-17.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TULN 77 – 71 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UNT 71 – 63 TULN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNT 76 – 66 TULN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNT 81 – 71 TULN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UNT 80 – 76 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#75) | 4.8 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#148) | 0.86 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#105) | 1.18 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#150) | 0.506 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 38.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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