Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -600 TULN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -9.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.4 (+1.6) | 127.2 (+14.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -10.2 (-0.2) | 122.7 (+19.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -10.1 (-0.1) | 125.4 (+16.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.0 (+1.0) | 125.5 (+16.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TULN 77 – 71 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UNT 71 – 63 TULN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNT 81 – 71 TULN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UNT 80 – 76 TULN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNT 70 – 56 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#74) | 1.3 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#66) | -0.11 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#72) | -0.02 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#38) | 0.490 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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