Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -600 PROV +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -12.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -9.5 (-0.5) | 141.1 (-12.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -8.4 (+0.6) | 138.1 (-9.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -9.0 (-0.0) | 137.8 (-8.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -9.1 (-0.1) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#9) | 8.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#56) | 1.97 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#48) | 2.98 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#43) | 0.596 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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