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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.8 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Temple @ South Florida	+6.8	145.3	79%	68–76	✓
Towson @ Monmouth	+3.5	134.9	66%	43–51	✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern	+5.2	147.8	71%	62–53	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel	+2.5	142.0	64%	63–78	✓
Hampton @ Delaware	+14.5	150.3	89%	53–80	✓
Elon @ William & Mary	+0.9	155.9	57%	70–77	✓
Charleston @ Hofstra	+5.1	148.0	69%	73–61	✗
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T	-0.4	140.0	44%	62–76	✗
Penn State @ Michigan State	+13.2	143.1	87%	61–92	✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast	+4.8	140.4	71%	70–80	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+10.1	143.8	86%	56–60	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	-2.9	131.2	36%	67–69	✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill	-5.0	136.3	29%	74–59	✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky	-0.5	143.4	49%	76–79	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris	+10.9	143.7	86%	48–92	✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland	+10.5	151.9	87%	95–100	✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy	-9.2	130.2	19%	69–51	✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State	+0.5	156.9	54%	70–82	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State	+11.8	140.1	88%	57–82	✓
Old Dominion @ Troy	+4.1	146.9	68%	73–86	✓
North Florida @ Stetson	+9.8	150.6	85%	74–75	✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky	-7.4	146.5	24%	72–80	✗
Memphis @ Tulsa	-5.5	145.8	29%	78–75	✓
James Madison @ Louisiana	-6.5	154.7	26%	68–61	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	+2.2	148.1	62%	80–88	✓
Georgia State @ Southern Miss	+0.2	145.4	56%	73–79	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Texas State	+9.4	134.8	82%	71–63	✗
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State	+9.6	143.7	84%	83–109	✓
App State @ South Alabama	-2.1	137.5	39%	91–84	✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State	+5.4	136.9	74%	76–78	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley	+2.1	132.6	61%	58–65	✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana	-1.2	142.2	48%	67–69	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	+10.5	139.5	87%	61–68	✓
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah	-8.4	152.7	23%	96–75	✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga	+14.7	143.5	88%	60–86	✓
Oregon @ Washington	+5.3	152.3	72%	76–74	✗
North Texas @ Wichita State	+0.6	132.0	56%	74–62	✗
Minnesota @ Michigan	+2.9	152.6	62%	73–71	✗
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+8.6	147.1	81%	79–72	✗
UTEP @ New Mexico State	+1.7	139.7	57%	53–63	✓
Colorado @ Arizona	+10.9	162.8	85%	50–97	✓
San Francisco @ Pacific	-16.1	131.2	12%	92–88	✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U	+11.7	146.2	87%	53–70	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	-5.9	143.6	27%	89–82	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield	-2.1	133.0	41%	78–67	✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+0.9	135.2	56%	83–63	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+1.4	141.4	58%	79–72	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine	+14.0	135.0	88%	67–75	✓
Oregon State @ Washington State	+10.9	137.5	86%	58–65	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	-7.3	144.5	24%	70–82	✗
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount	+1.2	142.9	53%	68–57	✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego	-6.9	133.0	25%	81–70	✓
UConn @ Butler	-1.5	149.1	45%	88–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.