Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · January 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -11.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money MORE -600 / TNTC +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +25 139 Won
Massey MORE -16.5 (+8.5) — —
Massey Totals — 136.7 (+2.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 98% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -11.5 (+13.5) 138.8 (+0.2) 85% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -11.8 (+13.2) 140.1 (-1.1) 88% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -13.0 (+12.0) 141.0 (-2.0) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -12.6 (+12.4) 141.1 (-2.1) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2026 MORE 73 – 66 TNTC
Jan 17, 2026 MORE 76 – 70 TNTC
Jan 31, 2025 TNTC 72 – 64 MORE
Jan 4, 2025 TNTC 74 – 55 MORE
Feb 3, 2024 MORE 67 – 60 TNTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE TNTC
Overall 26-9 10-21
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 14-1 7-8
Away 9-7 3-13
Neutral 3-1 0-0
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.3 64.9
Avg Pts Against 66.3 73.7
Massey 1.9 (#143) -10.3 (#325)
Bradley-Terry 0.99 (#96) -1.87 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.01 (#113) -2.45 (#321)
RPI 0.559 (#83) 0.417 (#308)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE TNTC
FG% 45.2% 42.8%
3PT% 33.7% 28.9%
REB / G 35.8 32.2
OREB / G 9.9 6.2
AST / TO 0.90 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 47.7%
TOV% 21.0% 17.1%
ORB% 31.3% 17.7%
FT Rate 21.6% 22.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 53.2%
Opp TOV% 14.0% 14.0%
DRB% 71.5% 73.8%
Opp FT Rate 30.8% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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