Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | MSU -1000 PSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +31 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -14.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -13.9 (+17.1) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -11.8 (+19.2) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.2 (+17.8) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -12.9 (+18.1) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
| Feb 15, 2022 | PSU 62 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#20) | 4.7 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#66) | -0.29 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#53) | -0.18 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#85) | 0.461 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.