Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -900 PSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -9.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.8 (-4.8) | 153.2 (+21.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -9.7 (-4.7) | 154.0 (+21.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -9.3 (-4.3) | 150.8 (+24.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.8 (-3.8) | 150.6 (+24.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
| Feb 15, 2022 | PSU 62 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#15) | 12.8 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#16) | 1.60 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#15) | 2.33 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#17) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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