Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | PSU -180 MSU +148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -9.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -6.5 (-15.5) | 143.3 (-18.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -6.4 (-15.4) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -6.1 (-15.1) | 143.7 (-18.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -5.7 (-14.7) | 142.9 (-17.9) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Feb 15, 2022 | PSU 62 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#58) | 4.1 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#58) | 0.81 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#56) | 1.13 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#39) | 0.566 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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