Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +138 MSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -5.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -3.0 (-5.0) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.7 (-5.3) | 139.1 (+12.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.2 (-5.8) | 141.1 (+10.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.5 (-5.5) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
| Feb 15, 2022 | PSU 62 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | 15.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#116) | 1.81 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#99) | 2.52 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#141) | 0.576 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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