Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.2 (+6.2) | 127.6 (-7.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.8 (+6.8) | 131.6 (-11.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.5 (+6.5) | 131.9 (-11.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.0 (+6.0) | 129.5 (-9.5) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | 12.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#98) | 2.79 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#91) | 3.39 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.614 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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