Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +575 MSU -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -10.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -7.4 (+3.4) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.9 (+3.9) | 135.0 (+13.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -8.7 (+4.7) | 136.8 (+11.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.1 (+4.1) | 137.9 (+10.1) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
| Feb 15, 2022 | PSU 62 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#123) | 18.0 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#115) | 3.73 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#127) | 6.26 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#94) | 0.675 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 40.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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