We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Western Athletic Conference · Redhawk Center · January 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SEA -10.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money SEA -600 / UTU +500
Model Predictions
Spread Total SEA win
Actual SEA +17 123 Won
Massey SEA -14.1 (+2.9)
Massey Totals 147.9 (-24.9)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline ML SEA -12.0 (+5.0) 147.3 (-24.3) 87%
Baseline Plus ML SEA -11.7 (+5.3) 146.1 (-23.1) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML SEA -11.3 (+5.7) 146.4 (-23.4) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML SEA -11.7 (+5.3) 146.2 (-23.2) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 9, 2025 SEA 7065 UTU
Jan 17, 2025 SEA 8262 UTU
Feb 18, 2024 SEA 6665 UTU
Mar 2, 2023 UTU 9356 SEA
Feb 9, 2023 SEA 7571 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SEA UTU
Overall 23-14 11-20
Conference 11-9 7-13
Home 14-4 6-7
Away 4-9 4-13
Neutral 5-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak W4 L1
Avg Pts For 73.0 70.4
Avg Pts Against 67.4 77.3
Massey 4.8 (#101) -4.9 (#255)
Bradley-Terry 0.12 (#168) -0.29 (#205)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.71 (#130) -0.45 (#214)
RPI 0.489 (#187) 0.491 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors SEA UTU
FG% 44.7% 43.3%
3PT% 32.7% 37.3%
REB / G 36.3 34.9
OREB / G 10.2 9.8
AST / TO 0.91 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 49.9%
TOV% 19.9% 20.6%
ORB% 30.6% 27.4%
FT Rate 27.6% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.3% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 18.2%
DRB% 74.0% 66.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 28.3%

Game Analysis

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