Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -225 UCSD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -2.5 (-9.5) | 144.3 (+6.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.4 (-8.4) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.0 (-8.0) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.7 (-7.7) | 142.0 (+9.0) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#188) | 1.5 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -0.69 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#199) | -0.54 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#214) | 0.453 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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