Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | USI +160 TNST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -0.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.9 (+3.9) | 143.7 (-7.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.2 (+3.2) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.3 (+3.3) | 143.2 (-7.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.6 (+3.6) | 144.3 (-8.3) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#318) | -5.0 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#336) | -0.77 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#329) | -0.70 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#313) | 0.450 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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