Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · January 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TAR -4.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money TAR -200 / UTA +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +2 154 Won
Massey TAR -6.8 (-4.8) — —
Massey Totals — 140.0 (+14.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TAR -5.7 (-3.7) 136.0 (+18.0) 72% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -5.4 (-3.4) 136.9 (+17.1) 74% ✓
Baseline ML TAR -5.7 (-3.7) 138.1 (+15.9) 75% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TAR -6.1 (-4.1) 136.7 (+17.3) 77% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 UTA 65 – 60 TAR
Jan 22, 2026 UTA 71 – 64 TAR
Dec 30, 2025 TAR 69 – 63 UTA
Feb 23, 2025 UTA 67 – 57 TAR
Jan 5, 2025 TAR 77 – 74 UTA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR UTA
Overall 25-10 20-14
Conference 16-4 13-7
Home 13-4 12-3
Away 10-5 5-10
Neutral 2-1 3-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 76.4
Avg Pts Against 70.2 74.7
Massey 0.8 (#155) -1.6 (#194)
Bradley-Terry 0.84 (#107) -0.30 (#208)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.00 (#114) -0.41 (#209)
RPI 0.537 (#116) 0.503 (#166)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR UTA
FG% 42.2% 41.8%
3PT% 28.2% 32.8%
REB / G 33.5 36.7
OREB / G 11.7 12.0
AST / TO 0.90 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.4% 48.6%
TOV% 19.1% 22.5%
ORB% 34.2% 33.5%
FT Rate 20.3% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 20.1% 15.9%
DRB% 66.1% 70.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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