Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -200 UTA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -6.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.7 (-3.7) | 136.0 (+18.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.4 (-3.4) | 136.9 (+17.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.7 (-3.7) | 138.1 (+15.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.1 (-4.1) | 136.7 (+17.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#155) | -1.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#107) | -0.30 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#114) | -0.41 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#116) | 0.503 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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