Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | LIU +170 WAG -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -2.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.6 (+5.6) | 133.9 (+2.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.9 (+4.9) | 131.2 (+4.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.0 (+5.0) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.1 (+4.1) | 133.2 (+2.8) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2026 | LIU 83 – 65 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-22 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-17 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#351) | -7.6 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#337) | -0.52 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#330) | -1.33 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#349) | 0.466 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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