Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -750 WAG +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -10.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -9.4 (+8.6) | 137.6 (+10.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -9.3 (+8.7) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -9.0 (+9.0) | 139.3 (+8.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -9.4 (+8.6) | 137.7 (+10.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 25, 2024 | WAG 72 – 57 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | -9.9 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#171) | -2.32 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#179) | -3.00 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#149) | 0.410 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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