Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +100 MUR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +22 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -10.6 (-32.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -5.5 (-27.5) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -7.7 (-29.7) | 147.5 (-7.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -8.1 (-30.1) | 146.9 (-6.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -7.6 (-29.6) | 148.1 (-8.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#126) | -3.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#85) | -1.28 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#101) | -1.23 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#72) | 0.428 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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