Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.0 Under |
| Money | UMBC +210 BRY -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +14 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -4.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -5.1 (-8.9) | 163.2 (-15.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -6.2 (-7.8) | 161.3 (-13.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -4.1 (-9.9) | 161.0 (-13.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -6.3 (-7.7) | 162.7 (-14.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#328) | -1.3 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#345) | 0.08 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.21 (#339) | 0.40 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#362) | 0.515 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 18.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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