Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -500 ME +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.8 (-1.8) | 133.5 (-10.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -6.7 (+0.3) | 134.4 (-11.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -7.0 (-0.0) | 135.2 (-12.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -7.0 (-0.0) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ME 76 – 70 UVM |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UVM 67 – 62 ME |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ME 57 – 42 UVM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVM 65 – 61 ME |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UVM 55 – 49 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#134) | -2.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#106) | -0.52 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#107) | -0.62 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#118) | 0.463 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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