Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK +110 AMER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -2.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -0.1 (-8.1) | 134.7 (-0.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -2.0 (-10.0) | 134.5 (-0.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -1.4 (-9.4) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.1 (-7.9) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#288) | -5.4 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#272) | -1.44 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#268) | -1.94 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#269) | 0.431 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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