Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -275 ETSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -5.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.7 (+12.3) | 139.5 (-15.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.9 (+13.1) | 138.6 (-14.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.5 (+13.5) | 139.5 (-15.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.0 (+13.0) | 140.5 (-16.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | -1.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#117) | 0.58 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#113) | 0.60 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#99) | 0.538 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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