Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -250 HC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -9.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -6.3 (+6.7) | 129.5 (-2.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -6.0 (+7.0) | 129.5 (-2.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -5.3 (+7.7) | 128.7 (-1.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -5.4 (+7.6) | 129.4 (-2.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ARMY 69 – 68 HC |
| Jan 14, 2026 | HC 82 – 75 ARMY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ARMY 68 – 65 HC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 71 HC |
| Mar 5, 2024 | HC 84 – 68 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-11 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.9 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#318) | -15.0 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#340) | -2.55 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#333) | -3.72 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#353) | 0.384 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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