Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HC -218 ARMY +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HC -5.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -4.0 (+3.0) | 138.5 (+18.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.8 (+4.2) | 141.5 (+15.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -3.2 (+3.8) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -3.6 (+3.4) | 139.2 (+17.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ARMY 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ARMY 68 – 65 HC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 71 HC |
| Mar 5, 2024 | HC 84 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ARMY 59 – 53 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#301) | -11.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#286) | -1.89 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#299) | -2.77 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#285) | 0.412 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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